Saudi Arabia is
hosting Arab leaders and Iran’s President for two summits this weekend on the
ongoing war in Gaza, which is raising fears of a regional escalation.
The emergency
meetings of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation come
after over one month of Israeli bombardment has killed more than 10,000 people
in Gaza, many of them children, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry.
Israel’s campaign
to destroy the Palestinian group has come in response to the bloody October 7
attack by Hamas that Israeli officials say left more than 1,400 people dead and
around 240 taken hostage.
With Israel’s
leaders rebuffing talk of a ceasefire until the captives are freed, anger in
Saudi Arabia over the Palestinian death number comes amid worries the war could
destabilise the wider region and fears this could thwart the kingdom’s attempts
to transition the economy away from oil.
The world’s
biggest oil exporter and its neighbours are “united in fearing one thing in
particular, which is a broader escalation”, said Elham Fakhro of Chatham House.
Two Gulf countries
– the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain – normalised relations with Israel in
2020, while Saudi Arabia has considered doing so, and all three cooperate with
Israel’s staunch ally the United States on security matters.
“They’re very
worried that they’re going to be targeted by Iranian proxy groups who are
seeking retaliation against Israel and United States,” Fakhro told a panel
organised by the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
Saudi analysts
said the Arab League meeting Saturday would do well to go beyond statements
condemning attacks on Gaza’s civilians, though it was unclear how the bloc
might shape events on the ground.
“This (Arab
League) meeting will be a success if it leads to any framework to pressure
Israel to stop the war. Otherwise, it will not be a success,” said Saudi
analyst Sulaiman al-Oqaily.
“The urgent need
now is to stop the war.”
‘Above the fray’
Saudi Arabia, home
to the holiest sites in Islam, has voiced support for the Palestinian cause
while denouncing incidents like the Israeli bombing last week of Gaza’s largest
refugee camp which killed dozens of people.
But it has
simultaneously forged ahead with events intended to highlight de facto ruler
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 reform agenda, notably a major
investment forum, Riyadh fashion week and a heavyweight boxing bout.
The back-to-back
summits in Riyadh could signal the start of a higher-profile diplomatic push,
with Saudi Arabia taking advantage of its position as a historic champion of
Palestinians combined with its interest in potentially recognising Israel one
day.
An official
familiar with Saudi thinking said in mid-October that talks on possible
normalisation with Israel were paused, yet analysts say they could be revived
after the Israel-Hamas war.
Saudi Arabia is “trying
to strategically position itself above the fray”, said Bader al-Saif at Kuwait
University.
“I think it’s very
smartly trying to position itself for the day after – how are we going to use
this to the best advantage not only for Saudi national interests, which is
front-and-centre, but also to advance a sane Palestinian-Israeli peace process.”
Ebrahim Raisi in
Saudi
Iranian President
Ebrahim Raisi’s expected attendance at the OIC summit on Sunday will bring an
unusual level of attention to the 57-member bloc of Muslim-majority countries.
It will be Raisi’s
first trip to Saudi Arabia since a surprise, China-brokered rapprochement deal
announced in March ended seven years of severed bilateral ties.
Iran is a backer
not just of Hamas but of Hezbollah and Yemen’s Huthi rebels, who have been at
war with a Saudi-led coalition since 2015.
However, the
Middle East heavyweights agree on publicly supporting Palestinians, a point
stressed in official communications on the first call between Raisi and Prince
Mohammed on October 12, five days after the war erupted.
Because the OIC’s
membership extends from Africa to Asia, any statement coming out of Sunday’s
summit could also underscore how support for Palestinians is growing well
beyond the Middle East, said Saudi analyst Aziz Alghashian.
“Non-Western
countries are not accepting this any longer and not buying the American
narrative, the Western narrative” of the conflict, he said.
AFP
