A recent declassified intelligence report has brought to light the increased efforts by China, Russia and Iran to interfere in the 2022 US midterm elections while keeping in comparison their efforts in the 2018 midterms, The Hill reported
The report, produced in December 2022 and declassified last week, outlines the US Intelligence community’s (IC) assessments of foreign threats during the elections. While there was no evidence of “a directive from any foreign leader to undertake a comprehensive, whole-of-government influence campaign” similar to Russia’s actions in the 2016 election, yet the report notes a higher level of foreign activity than in 2018, according to The Hill.
The IC still detected a “diverse and growing group of foreign actors … engaging in such operations, including China’s greater willingness to conduct election influence activities than in past cycles.”
“The involvement of more foreign actors probably reflects shifting geopolitical risk calculus, perceptions that election influence activity has been normalised, the low cost but potentially high reward of such activities, and a greater emphasis on election security in IC collection and analysis,” the report revealed.
The IC also found that there were notably no continuous efforts to gain access to election infrastructure or to change votes, which the report noted is “technically challenging.” Instead, the foreign meddlers now seem mostly focused on “amplifying authentic US public narratives to try to influence electoral outcomes, increase mistrust in US election processes, and stoke socio political divisions.”
“This approach provides deniability as foreign actors propagate US content to try to exploit existing fissures,” the report said.
With “high confidence”, the intelligence community concluded that the Russian government and its proxies “sought to denigrate the Democratic Party before the midterm elections and undermine confidence in the election, most likely to undermine US support for Ukraine,” as reported by The Hill. The report notes that Kremlin intelligence services conducted “extensive research and analysis of US audiences” to aid in their election meddling efforts, identifying target demographics, narratives, and platforms.
The intelligence community also assessed with “high confidence” that China “tacitly approved efforts to try to influence a handful of midterm races” against politicians perceived as anti-China. The report suggests that China’s growing efforts to magnify US societal divisions may be a response to perceived US attempts to promote democracy at China’s expense.
“(People’s Republic of China) leaders are most likely to see their growing efforts to magnify US Societal divisions as a response to what they believe is an intensified US effort to promote democracy at China’s expense,” the report added.
With moderate confidence, the intelligence community concluded that Iran attempted to “exploit perceived social divisions and undermine confidence in US democratic institutions.” Iran’s efforts were likely constrained by available resources amid internal unrest. The report also notes that “a range of additional foreign actors took some steps to undermine US politicians seeking reelection,” specifically mentioning Cuba.
Cuba’s efforts were described as “smaller in scale and more narrowly targeted than the activities conducted China, Iran, and Russia,” focusing on candidates in Florida while attempting “to shape impressions of other US politicians,” The Hill reported.
ANI
