Edited by Deepali Verma
On 13 January, voters in Taiwan will vote to choose a new president that will set the tone for relations between the world’s two biggest superpowers for the years to come.
Albeit the Chinese Communist party (CCP) has never ruled Taiwan, it claims the territory to be an extended part of the People’s Republic of China. It has additionally not ruled out the use of force to fulfil its long-stated ambition of “reunification”. On the other hand, the US committed to supporting Taiwan in any attempted incursion from China. However, the nature and extent of this support remains unclear – a policy known as “strategic ambiguity”– making Taiwan one of the largest flashpoints in US-China relations.
Who are the candidates?
The frontrunner Lai Ching-te hails from the incumbent Democratic Progressive party (DPP). Lai is vice-president to Tsai Ing-wen, who is stepping down as he is facing term limits. Lai, along with his running mate, the former Taiwanese envoy to the US Hsiao Bi-Khim, represent the continuity choice.
The DPP believes that Taiwan’s peaceful status quo relies on constructing stronger relationships on a global stage, especially with the US. There are speculations that Lai is not as well-liked in Washington as Tsai or Hsiao and is openly despised by the Chinese government, which has labelled him a “complete troublemaker”.
The prime opposition candidate is Hou You-yi belonging to the more conservative Kuomintang (KMT). Hou is a former police officer and a popular mayor of New Taipei City. The KMT, historically carrying an image of elitism, hopes that Hou’s working-class roots will attract a broad range of voters. That everyman persona may also prove to be Hou’s weakness, as it raises the question whether he has the due foreign policy experience to lead Taiwan through the delicate balancing act between the US and China.
What could potentially be a disruptor in the race is Ko Wen-je of the newly formed Taiwan People’s party (TPP). Ko, a former Taipei mayor and a surgeon before entering politics in 2014, tries to leverage his scientific background to showcase himself as a technocrat with a safe pair of hands in the president’s office. His medical credentials have not always played well as he is caught often making bizarre claims.
Ko voices that the TPP offers a “middle way” between the DPP and the KMT on the China issue, when in fact his policies are closer to the KMT’s.
What are the main issues?
The question of how to deal with China is the dominant stretch of the campaign. Taiwan has long lived under the threat of a Chinese invasion but tensions have escalated recently, with more intense military drills and US intelligence suggesting that China may annex Taiwan within the next decade.
China and the KMT have outlined the vote choice between war and peace. But such arguments have previously failed to convince voters to shun the DPP. Hou, contrarily, argues that a vote for the DPP would be synonymous to “sending everyone out to the battlefield”, as it would instigate a war with China.
More than a third of people believe economic development to be the most pressing concern for the next president, making it the top issue for voters. Lai and Hou have made promises to increase the minimum wage, that is of particular importance to younger voters.
Having a small, rocky archipelago, Taiwan is dependent on imports for close to 97% of its energy, exposing it to disruption. Energy security is a key concern for many voters. In 2017, 2019 and 2022 saw mass blackouts, affecting millions of households. In case of a Chinese blockade, stockpiles of gas, coal and oil would last about 200 days, although the government has set targets to expand reserves.
This has put up the question of resurrecting Taiwan’s nuclear power programme, standing in decline since Tsai came to power in 2016. Only standing nuclear power plant is to retire by 2025. Hou has assured to rebuild Taiwan’s nuclear energy capacity but a referendum in 2021 voted against the continued construction on a nuclear power plant leaves voters sceptical.
What does it mean for China?
Beijing, in close watch of voting, is expected to grow pressure on the island in the coming days. China’s president, Xi Jinping, new year’s address stated “reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability”. The CCP hopes to make use of political and economic pressure to achieve that goal. Taiwan’s foreign ministry revealed its documentation of Chinese attempts to interfere in the election and would publish it post election.
The China analyst Bill Bishop expressed in a recent newsletter that though a Lai victory was unlikely to start an immediate military assault from China, “do not be surprised if Beijing does not wait until his inauguration in May to proceed with actions”. One way to respond would be to suspend the 2010 trade agreement that has been the subject of recent disputes, Bishop suggested. Some analysts have also estimated to witness an increase in Chinese military drills around the island.
