Nogaon has been a BJP fortress with its candidate Rajen Gohain winning the seat in four consecutive terms from 1999 to 2014. Though, the BJP lost the seat to Congress’ Pradyut Bordoloi when the Saffron Party replaced Gohain with Rupak Sarmah in 2019, the victory margin of Bordoloi was thin with only 16,752 or 49.53 per cent votes. Nogaon became a Muslim-majority seat after last year’s delimitation exercise. Muslims constitute 51 per cent of Nogaon’s electorate. But since 2019, many things have changed which may lead to BJP’s victory in the seat.
Factors Favourable For BJP
Historical Stronghold: Nogaon has historically been a BJP bastion, with Rajen Gohain securing the seat for four consecutive terms from 1999 to 2014.
Focused Campaigning: Assam Chief Minister Dr Himanta Biswa Sarma has intensified efforts to secure 13 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats for the BJP. He banks on his government’s action against evil practices like polygamy and child marriage and other developmental works. He said they know that “one vote can protect our minority sisters from the bane of polygamy and child marriage”.
Organisational Strength: Since coming to power in 2016, the BJP has diligently worked to strengthen its organisational machinery, enhancing its grassroots presence and outreach efforts.
Electoral Performance: In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP improved its tally by winning nine out of 14 seats in Assam, indicating a strong electoral performance and growing support base.
Delimitation: Despite Nogaon becoming a Muslim-majority seat after the recent delimitation exercise, the entry of the All India United Democratic Front or AIUDF has complicated the electoral scenario.
AIUDF Challenge: The AIUDF, led by Badruddin Ajmal, enjoys considerable support among Bengali-speaking Muslims in Assam and has fielded a strong candidate Aminul Islam in Nogaon .
Congress Dilemma: Pradyut Bordoloi is employing aggressive campaign tactics, including extensive ground coverage and well-attended rallies, in a bid to retain relevance amidst heightened competition. The Congress, however, faces challenges due to the AIUDF’s presence, leading to concerns about the division of minority votes and the potential loss of its traditional support base.
Tags: AssamCongressLok Sabha Elections 2024Muslim-Majority SeatNagaonPradyut BordoloiSuresh Bora
