A report released by United Nations projected Bharat’s population to peak around the early 2060s at approximately 1.7 billion before declining by 12 per cent, yet it will remain the world’s most populous country throughout the century.
The World Population Prospects 2024 report predicts that the global population will continue to increase for the next 50-60 years, reaching around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After this peak, the population is expected to gradually decrease, falling to 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
Bharat, which surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation last year, will hold onto this title through 2100.
“The population of Bharat is expected to remain the largest in the world throughout the century, declining by 12 per cent after peaking in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion,” the UN report from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Population Division stated.
The report forecasts Bharat’s population to be 1.45 billion in 2024, peaking at 1.69 billion in 2054, before decreasing to 1.5 billion by 2100, ensuring it remains the most populous country on Earth.
Responding to a question about Bharat’s population projections, Senior Population Affairs Officer Clare Menozzi from UN DESA explained, “Bharat is currently the largest country in terms of population and is expected to stay so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated at 1.45 billion and is projected to grow further to 1.69 billion.”
Menozzi added, “Bharat’s population is expected to peak in the 2060s and then decline slightly. By the end of the century, Bharat is projected to have a population of around 1.5 billion, maintaining its status as the largest country in the world by a significant margin.”
China’s population, currently at 1.41 billion in 2024, is projected to drop to 1.21 billion by 2054 and further decrease to 633 million by 2100.
The report indicates that China will experience the largest absolute population decline between 2024 and 2054, with a loss of 204 million people, followed by Japan losing 21 million and Russia losing 10 million. The report further suggests that China’s population will halve by the end of the century, returning to levels last seen in the late 1950s.
John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA, explained the significant population decline in China: “The decline is related to the current fertility level in China, which is around one birth per woman on average over a lifetime.”
Wilmoth continued, “A fertility level below 2.1 is insufficient to maintain the current population without migration. If fertility remains low, particularly below 1.8 or 1.5, it results in a significant long-term population decline. This is true for China and several other countries analyzed.”
