Bharat is projected to experience an 8 per cent surge in electricity demand this year, according to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). This spike is driven by robust economic growth, intense heat waves, and increased adoption of technologies that rely on electricity, such as electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps.
Globally, electricity demand is also on the rise, forecasted to grow by about 4per cent in 2024, up from 2.5per cent in 2023. The IEA’s Electricity Mid-Year Update suggests this would be the highest annual growth rate since 2007, excluding the exceptional rebounds following the global financial crisis and the Covid pandemic.
Renewables are continuing their rapid ascent, with solar PV expected to set new records. The report predicts that the share of renewable sources in global electricity supply will increase from 30per cent in 2023 to 35 per cent in 2025. By 2025, the electricity generated by renewables is anticipated to surpass that generated by coal for the first time.
Solar PV alone is projected to meet roughly half of the growth in global electricity demand over 2024 and 2025, with solar and wind combined accounting for as much as three-quarters of this growth. Despite the sharp increase in renewables, global coal power generation is unlikely to decline this year due to strong demand growth, particularly in China and Bharat.
This surge in electricity consumption is expected to lead to a slight increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the global power sector in 2024, followed by a decline in 2025. However, if Chinese hydropower production continues its upward trend from the first half of 2024, it could curb coal-fired power generation and result in a slight decline in global power sector emissions in 2024.
Several major economies are seeing significant increases in electricity consumption. In addition to Bharat’s 8 per cent surge, China is expected to see demand grow by more than 6 per cent due to robust activity in services and industrial sectors, including clean energy technology manufacturing. In the US, electricity demand is forecast to rebound by 3 per cent amid steady economic growth and rising demand for cooling.
Conversely, the European Union is expected to see a more modest recovery in electricity demand, with growth forecasted at 1.7 per cent, following two consecutive years of contraction due to the energy crisis.
The report highlights that air-conditioning will remain a significant driver of electricity demand in many parts of the world. Intense heat waves in the first half of 2024 have already elevated demand, putting electricity systems under strain.
IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security, Keisuke Sadamori, emphasised the need for faster growth in clean energy’s share of the electricity mix to meet international energy and climate goals. He also highlighted the importance of expanding and reinforcing grids to ensure secure and reliable electricity supply and implementing higher energy efficiency standards to mitigate the impact of increased cooling demand.
With the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the electricity demand of data centres is drawing increased attention. The report underscores the need for more reliable data and better stocktaking measures to understand and manage this growing demand.
